Due to favorable rainfall in West Africa, cocoa prices fell moderately today, which improved soil moisture and promoted the growth of cocoa trees. Farmers in Côte d'Ivoire and Ghana reported that recent rains have restored crops, causing the cocoa trees to bloom again. However, the price decline was constrained by concerns about a slowdown in cocoa exports in Côte d'Ivoire. Although government data shows that Ivorian farmers have shipped 1.29 million tons of cocoa to ports this year, an increase of 22% from last year, exports have slowed compared to the 35% increase in December.

Nevertheless, concerns about West Africa's cocoa production remain a positive factor in the price increase. Weather forecasting company Maxar Technologies warned that the Hamadan winds were the driest in six years, further exacerbating crop conditions. Farmers in Côte d’Ivoire and Ghana observed that cocoa trees were damaged by dryness and dust storms, with yellow leaves and withering cocoa pods.

The global cocoa deficit is another important bullish factor. The International Cocoa Organization (ICCO) reported on January 24 that global cocoa inventory in 2023/24 was 1.041 million tons, a year-on-year decrease of 36%, lower than the previous estimate of 1.3 million tons. This shows that the ICCO projected a global cocoa deficit of 478,000 tons in 2023/24, which may be larger than initially expected.